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Last week I voted-by-mail, so this week I checked my county elections office to make sure they received my ballot. My county elections supervisor runs a very clean office, but a recent ACLU report found serious issues with vote-by-mail ballot processing in Florida, so Florida voters-by-mail should check to make sure your ballot is counted.

I also made more calls for Sen. Bill Nelson’s reelection campaign, and for Andrew Gillum’s gubernatorial campaign.

FiveThirtyEight’s model has Sen. Nelson a 5-in-7 favorite based on polls, fundamentals, and similar race outcomes. That’s not bad; it’s the same as the probability that any random person was born on a weekday. But lots of people were born on weekends. I’d rather be a 5-in-7 favorite than a 2-in-7 underdog, but that favorite is nowhere near certain to win … so we need to treat the GOTV work as if this were an even race.

Gillum is a slightly stronger favorite: 7-in-9 according to FiveThirtyEight. Again, that’s better than being a 2-in-9 underdog. But pitcher and catcher are only 2 of the 9 positions on a baseball team … and every starting lineup has one of each. So, again, we need to treat the GOTV work as if this were an even race.


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