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Today Pew Research released a study that found coverage of poll-based win probabilities may reduce voter turnout. The first part of the study found more people were “certain” of an election outcome when coverage included win probabilities (e.g.: 63%) rather than only poll margins (e.g.: 52-48). The second part of the study, with a new pool of respondents, found people were less likely to vote when exposed to probabilities rather than only margins. Did sites like FiveThirtyEight breed a fatal complacency among would-be Democratic voters in 2016?


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