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Today a Fox News poll found Democrat Doug Jones leading Republican Roy Moore by 10 points, a day after an Emerson College poll found Moore leading by 9 points. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver attributes the difference to robo-polling (where Moore leads) vs. live-caller-polls (where Jones leads) and No More Mister Nice Blog’s Steve M. suggests the Fox News poll was skewed to boost GOP turnout, but a single Monmouth University poll found anywhere from a 4-point lead for Moore to a 3-point lead for Jones and a single Survey Monkey poll found anywhere from an 9-point lead for Moore to an 8-point lead for Jones, with both the Monmouth and Survey Monkey results depending on which voter turnout model is applied to the raw polling data. With turnout so critical, will the result be driven by Alabama’s voter suppression laws?
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