Close elections are decided by grassroots activists … like us. (More)
“Now another cake is in the oven”
Squirrels like things that come in nutshells, and the Washington Post’s Stuart Rothenberg puts the status of this election in a nutshell:
The cake was baked in this race. Then James B. Comey threw it away. Now another cake is in the oven. It is still likely to be an identical copy of the first cake, though probably a bit smaller.
The bottom line: Clinton remains the favorite (in both the popular and electoral votes), though a less comfortable one than a week ago. The fight for the Senate looks like a toss-up, with Democrats still having more paths than the GOP to a majority. And, the House is not in play.
The Huffington Post forecast has Hillary Clinton a 98% favorite to win on Tuesday, while FiveThirtyEight is more cautious in giving her a 67% chance of winning. In between falls the New York Times Upshot model, which has her an 84% favorite.
“Narrow margins are where strong ground efforts – pulling people to the polls – can make a difference”
But it’s going to be close, as the Post’s Philip Bump explains:
If the polls closed right at this moment (which they won’t) and if the results in each state perfectly mirrored the current RealClearPolitics average of polls in each state (which they won’t), Hillary Clinton would be elected president by an electoral college margin of 8 votes. From her high in the polls a week or two ago, Clinton’s leads in a number of critical battleground states have collapsed or evaporated entirely. The election could come down to one state with four electoral college votes that flips from Clinton to Donald Trump and, boom: A 269-269 electoral college tie, and a vote by the House of Representatives to decide on the next president – who, given the composition of the House, would almost certainly be Donald Trump.
Two recent polls suggest the New Hampshire could be the four-electoral-vote flip that Trump needs, although Bump notes those are outliers. And he adds a major caveat for those who think Trump will win on Tuesday:
Polls may not capture turnout well. Some 34 million people have already voted, many of them in battleground states where Clinton was winning by a decent margin when the people voted. […]
What’s more, there are six states that currently have a margin of two points or less in the polling average. On Election Day in 2008 and 2012, RCP tracked only four states that close. Narrow margins are where strong ground efforts – pulling people to the polls – can make a difference. By all accounts, Clinton’s efforts in that regard are superior to Trump’s.
In short, this is exactly the kind of election where our grassroots activism can truly decide the outcome.
“We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton”
If you need a pick-me-up to go with that challenge, The Atlantic’s Chimamanda Adichie offers a wonderful essay on the routinely ignored voters who enthusiastically support Clinton:
We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton, who support her because of her qualifications rather than because of her unqualified opponent, who empathize with her. Yet millions of Americans, women and men, love her intelligence, her industriousness, her grit; they feel loyal to her, they will vote with enthusiasm for her.
Human beings change as they grow, but a person’s history speaks to who she is. There are millions who admire the tapestry of Hillary Clinton’s past: the first-ever student commencement speaker at Wellesley speaking boldly about making the impossible possible, the Yale law student interested in the rights of migrant farmworkers, the lawyer working with the Children’s Defense Fund, the first lady trying to make health care accessible for all Americans.
There are people who love how cleanly she slices through policy layers, how thoroughly she digests the small print. They remember that she won two terms to the United States Senate, where she was not only well-regarded but was known to get along with Republicans. They have confidence in her. There are people who rage at the media on her behalf, who see the coverage she too often receives as unfair. There are people who in a quiet, human way wish her well. There are people who, when Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman to be president of the United States, will weep from joy.
Adichie also explores the hidden (and not-so-hidden) misogyny driving the anti-Clinton conspiracy theories. It’s a must-read … especially right before you start those GOTV calls.
In case you missed it, that thud was the sound of a hint dropping.
Photo Credit: Timmy Swift (LaughSpark)
Good day and good nuts