In one of this year’s most important races, Data (D-Knowledge) easily defeated Anecdotes (R) and Gut Feelings (P). (More)
You didn’t see any the names on your ballot, but squirrels and many other observers were tracking one of 2012’s most important races and I’m pleased to report that Data (D-Knowledge) resoundingly defeated both his Republican challenger Anecdotes and the Pundit Party’s Gut Feelings.
Indeed the race wasn’t even close, as Data’s winning coalition included:
- Poll Aggregators – If Florida goes for President Obama after the last votes are counted, as seems likely, the New York Times‘ Nate Silver and the Princeton Election Consortium’s Sam Wang will have notched perfect forecasts, while Talking Points Memo‘s PollTracker and Real Clear Politics will have predicted 49-of-50 state races. The Huffington Post’s Pollster had Florida as a tossup. All of these forecast President Obama’s victory weeks in advance … unlike Anecdotes and Gut Feelings who insisted the race was a tossup.
- Increasingly Diverse Electorate – While Anecdotes made claims like “black leaders I’ve spoken with President Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage will cost him votes” and “Hispanics are deeply disappointed with President Obama,” and Gut Feelings insisted “Romney will split the women’s vote” and “disillusioned young voters won’t turn out like they did in 2008,” Data’s prediction of a 2012 electorate where women, young voters, and persons of color turned out in huge numbers for President Obama and Democrats was a key story both for 2012 and for the future.
- Climate Science – Anecdotes stubbornly insisted that there had been bad storms long before anyone even thought about climate change, and that voters would not care about Mitt Romney’s jokes about “holding back rising seas.” Gut Feelings even thought super storm Sandy might cost President Obama as “grumpy” northeastern voters would be less likely to support the president. But Data shone again, as over 40% of voters said President Obama’s response to Sandy and climate change was an “important factor” in their decisions. Indeed one-in-six said it was the “most important factor.”
- Economic Awareness – Finally, Anecdotes quoted a handful of voters who blamed President Obama for the bad economy, and Gut Feelings even said last month’s hopeful unemployment numbers must have been cooked. But a majority of voters again sided with Data, with a majority holding former President George W. Bush and Republicans responsible for the Great Recession and a plurality saying the economy is improving.
This powerful coalition pushed Data to return as leader of Knowledge, a victory now being celebrated by squirrels and others in Realworldia.
Good day and good nuts.